EGHOP 25/07/2020

Overview

  • Motivation (~ 1 minute)
  • Algorithm in brief (~ 5 minutes)
  • Results (~ 5 minutes)
  • Discussion (~ 5 minutes)

Disclaimers / Notes

Algorithm (in brief)

smcsmc

  • Sequential Monte Carlo for the Sequentially Markovian Coalescent
  • Infer demographic parameters (effective population size, directional migration) over a number of piecewise constant epochs
    • Similar to MSMC(2) in this regard, but we control the epochs.
  • Python package

Algorithm

  • Simulate ancestral recombination graphs sequentially across the genome with parameters \(\theta\)
  • Using information about variation, asign a weight \(w_i\) to each of the particles (histories).
  • As you move along the genome, resample if the collection of particles becomes too similar (effective sample size gets too low).
  • Use variational Bayes to update the parameter estimtes \(\theta\) until convergence

Step 1: Simulate and extend ARGs

Step 2: Simulate recombination events

Step 3: Update weights

Step 4: Resample if low ESS

ESS = Effective sample size (of the particle population)

Algorithm in action

Study design

  • Pairs of individual WGS samples from Simons Genome Diversity Panel (SGDP) and Human Genome Diversity Project (HGDP)
    • HGDP samples experimentally phased, SGDP statistically phased.
  • Simulations done in SCRM with known demographic parameters
  • \(D\) statistics (a la Patterson 2012) in admixr (highly recommend)
    • Ancient samples include Vindija and Altai Neanderthals
    • Many more from the Reich Human Origins dataset
  • All experiments were replicated three times.

Substantial Directional Migration

Integrated Migration by Population

IMF = Integrated migration fraction, or the total proportion replaced over a given time period.

Simulations Confirm Power

In order, simulated Eurasia to Africa migration, bidirectional, and Africa to Eurasia migration. Many more scenarios in the supplemental material.

Migration inflated \(N_e\) estimation

MSMC2 run with default parameters.

Migration inflates \(N_e\) in simulation

No excess Neanderthal introgression

Discussion

Demography

References